Conferences, the Future

As I sit down to write this article, I can confidently assert that the future of college sports looks much brighter today than as of yesterday. The six major conferences, consisting of the ACC, Big East, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 10 all remain in tact. Yes, certain teams have changed conferences, but the overall landscape is stable, thanks to one school in particular, the University of Texas Longhorns (pictured above).

Let us rewind 24 hours. The Big 12 was in shambles. Nebraska had bolted to the Big 10, enticed by the conference's own network and the guaranteed $20-25 million the university would receive annually. Fellow North division opponent Colorado had already announced its intentions to join the Pac 10. Money seems to be the driving force behind the Buffaloes decision, yet statistics show that the Big 12 has a greater total revenue than the Pac 10. Yes, the distribution between teams in the Big 12 is unequal, with national powerhouses, such as Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State receiving the majority of the money. Furthermore, these national powerhouses who headline the Big 12 Conference were reviewing moves to Pac 10, as well. The University of Texas A&M was even considering moving to the football crazy SEC.

If this were to have occurred, with Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, and others, the Pac 10 would have been drastically different. With more than 12 teams, the conference, as deemed by the NCAA, is eligible to create divisions. In ideal circumstances, the former Big 12 members would pair with Arizona, Arizona State, and perhaps USC to form the South Division. While, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and California would headline the North Division. At the end of the football season, the winners of each division would play in the Pac 10 Championship Game, an entity that does not yet exist within the conference, to determine which team would play in the BCS Bowl Games.

Expectedly, this new super Pac 10 Conference creates more problems within the BCS. Imagine for a moment that the Pac 10 as well as the Big 10 expand drastically to accomodate for all Big 12 teams. Thus, the NCAA would now have only 5 major conferences. The BCS, in its current system, awards each major conference one BCS berth. Thus, the conference winners, as of now, account for 6 of the 10 teams in BCS Bowls. In the scenario with 5 conferences, rules would have to amended, and many analysts point to this possible conference expansion as a stepping stone to a playoff system. Certainly, fans nationwide would not be averse to such a system.

This morning, Big 12 Commissioner Don Beebe persuaded University of Texas and President Bill Powers to stay in the Big 12 Conference. With just 10 teams, two divisions and a conference title game would both be elements of the past. Beebe, however, promised a more lucrative TV deal, which would likely pay the Longhorns between $20-25 million per year. Unfortunately, the conference will likely not have its own network. Texas emerges as the culprit. The University already has a network dedicated to the Longhorns, and, as childish as it may appear, they are unwilling to remove themselves from the spotlight. Not all is bad for teams, such as Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa State. No, they will not receive revenue like the conferences elite, but they should generate double their current amount of revenue.

Complicated? Yes, but unfortunately, the fate of the Big 10 causes an entirely different headache. With the addition of Nebraska, the conference expands to 12 teams. (I know the conference signifies there should be 10 teams, but Penn State, the Big 10's 11th team, joined years after the conference was named). Two division and a conference championship game appear to be in the Big 10's future, but will the conference stop at 12 teams. Conference Commissioner Jim Delaney is keen on adding Notre Dame. In football, they are an independent, meaning they can play whoever they want, whenever they want. The Fighting Irish are not constrained to a conference schedule. already? To make matters trickier, Notre Dame is a member of the Big East in every other sport. Nevertheless, the possible move of Notre Dame to the Big 10 eliminates, in essence, the university's TV deal with NBC. In terms of money, the move to the Big 10 would be costly for the Fighting Irish. The swaying factor is travel. Notre Dame is located in South Bend, IN, which is miles away from the likes of USC or Boston College. The Big 10's schedule would allow Notre Dame to travel often via bus to games, which would eliminates the cost of long plane flights.

The Big 10 is also looking to tap into the New York and New Jersey markets. As a result, Commissioner Jim Delaney looks to Rutgers as a possible members. The Scarlet Knights currently are part of the Big East, but their presence in the Big 10 brings the intrigue of the country's #1 sports market, New York City. Rutgers is also the state university of New Jersey, bringing fans from across the state to the Big 10 Conference.

In addition, Syracuse appears to be on the conference's radar. Although not anymore a football power, university provides the Big 10 with the entire up state New York market. Moreover, the Orange are an elite basketball program, perhaps helping to eliminate the perception that the conference begins and ends with football. The most intriguing dynamic, however, is the Big East. If Syracuse leaves, the conference loses one of its founding universities. It is a power in basketball, as aforementioned, with a rich tradition in both lacrosse and football. If the Orange leave the Big East, some analysts predict the conference, in its entirety, could begin to crumble.

ESPN has reported that the University of Maryland may leave the ACC to join the Big 10, as well. I'm not questioning the validity of the report or the motive of switching to a richer, more prestigious conference, but as a Maryland resident, I find the entire notion difficult to fathom. Maryland, as an athletic program, is so intertwined with its rivalries against Duke, North Carolina, and Wake Forest in basketball, and many Maryland boosters would hate to leave potential classic tussles behind.

Last but not least, Boise State has left the WAC. They are joining the Mountain West Conference, which should shape up to be the premier "mid-major" conference in the country. The Broncos should be tested against fellow football-rich programs, such as Utah, BYU and TCU. Perhaps this plethora of elite football universities will make the NCAA consider expanding to 7 major conferences, with the BCS awarding 7 automatic bids.

-DR